FLORIDA — On Monday, Gov. Ron DeSantis said he’s spoken with President Joe Biden and Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Deanne Criswell about potential destruction from the soon-to-become Hurricane Idalia.
“Everyone understands the significance of this event and understands the need to work together,” he said, adding that FEMA worked closely with the state following last year’s Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, providing temporary housing, roofing tarps and then establishing temporary offices throughout the state for FEMA claims and loans.
While Hurricane Ian now holds the record as the costliest hurricane in Florida and the third-costliest hurricane in the United States, DeSantis said there’s no way to predict the Idalia’s impact, although it appears to be on a trajectory with the Big Bend area of the state (the curve into the Panhandle), which isn’t as heavily populated as the Fort Myers area that was devastated by Ian.
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“As we’ve seen before, hurricanes can wobble in either direction,” said DeSantis, noting that Hurricane Ian was originally predicted to strike Tampa Bay but made an unexpected eastward turn and struck south Florida instead, catching thousands of residents and business owners off guard.
He warned residents that this storm could do the same.
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Regardless of where Idalia makes landfall, DeSantis wasn’t sugarcoating the impact.
“There’s no way you’re going to get through this storm without losing power. I’ve already spoken with the utility companies and they have their linemen ready to go,” he said. “The quicker we can get power back up, the better off everyone will be.”
Duke Energy, for instance, has 4,500 resources stage and ready to move as soon as the hurricane passes.
Depending on whether it strikes land as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, hurricane-force winds could range from 111 mph and 156 mph
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He said the major fear continues to be storm surge, the most destructive aspect of a hurricane.
“Even if the storm remains off the coast of Tampa, there is still going to be substantial storm surge,” he said. “Just please be vigilant. Hopefully, people will heed the warnings and not be in harm’s way,, but we’ll have rescue personnel ready regardless.”
In preparation for a mass disaster, DeSantis said he has 5,500 National Guard members mobilized, seven search-and urban-rescue team ready to deploy and members of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Florida Highway Patrol working 24/7 shifts.
In case of an internet outage, DeSantis said the state is ready to hook up 650 Starlink internet hookups ready to deploy in the hardest-hit areas. He said these were a godsend following Hurricane Ian when residents had no way to contact worried family members.
Starlink is a satellite internet constellation operated by American aerospace company SpaceX.
National Hurricane Center hurricane specialist Robbie Berg conceded agreed with DeSantis that the hurricane’s trajectory could wobble north or south so it’s difficult to predict where a hurricane will make landfall with 100 percent certainty.
Forecasting isn’t an exact science, although new technology is allowing forecasters to make more accurate predictions, he said.
That means residents shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking they’re safe from the storm.
“NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast cone,” he said.
The NHC cone map’s solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days one to three days of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days four and five.
“Historical data indicate that the entire five-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time,” he said. The other 30 to 40 percent is anybody’s guess.
In an instructional video, Berg and fellow hurricane specialist John Cangialosi discuss what the cone graphic can and can’t tell the public about an approaching storm.
This graphic shows the areas potentially affected by sustained tropical-force winds in orange and hurricane-force winds in red.
The display is based on the wind radii contained in the latest forecast advisory. This wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone.
As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red shaded areas will be experiencing sustained tropical storm-or hurricane-force winds, respectively, Berg said.
In addition to the wind field, the graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).
The white dot indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone, and the dashed line shows the history of the center of the tropical cyclone.
A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is available here.
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