The Championship is not only one of the most exciting leagues in world football, it’s also one of the most unpredictable.
It showed this side once again at the weekend as Swansea City struck late to down table-toppers Leeds United and place themselves at the summit ahead of Charlton.
The Addicks have been the surprise package of the season so far, soaring into second spot under manager Lee Bowyer, despite the fact they were only promoted from League One via the play-offs last season.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the table, Huddersfield Town are amongst the strugglers having just been relegated from the Premier League, and Stoke City, under the stewardship of Nathan Jones, are rock bottom with just one point.
But are things really as they appear in the second tier?
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the ‘expected goals’ (xG) metric allows us to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
What is expected goals?
- Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
- Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
- The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
- The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on the excellent experimental361.com, run by Ben Mayhew, to see how clubs are performing based on their stats.
Find out how the stats believe the Championship COULD be shaping up below…
24. Barnsley – Real position = 21
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 3
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23. Bristol City – Real position = 5
Real points = 11 | Expected points = 3
22. Wigan Athletic – Real position = 22
Real points = 4 | Expected points = 4
21. Huddersfield Town – Real position = 23
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 4
20. Blackburn Rovers – Real position = 17
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 4
19. Hull City – Real position = 20
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 5
18. Swansea City – Real position = 1
Real points = 16 | Expected points = 6
17. Luton Town – Real position = 15
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 6
16. Stoke City – Real position = 24
Real points = 1 | Expected points = 6
15. Nottingham Forest – Real position = 10
Real points = 9 | Expected points = 6
14. Birmingham City – Real position = 9
Real points = 10 | Expected points = 7
13. Cardiff City – Real position = 13
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 7
12. Millwall – Real position = 12
Real points = 9 | Expected points = 8
11. Reading – Real position = 16
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 8
10. Middlesbrough – Real position = 18
Real points = 6 | Expected points = 9
9. Sheffield Wednesday – Real position = 11
Real points = 9 | Expected points = 9
8. Derby County – Real position = 19
Real points = 6 | Expected points = 10
7. Charlton Athletic – Real position = 2
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 10
6. Queens Park Rangers – Real position = 8
Real points = 10 | Expected points = 11
5. West Bromwich Albion – Real position = 4
Real points = 12 | Expected points = 11
4. Preston North End – Real position = 7
Real points = 10 | Expected points = 13
3. Brentford – Real position = 14
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 13
2. Fulham – Real position = 6
Real points = 10 | Expected points = 14
1. Leeds United – Real position = 3
Real points = 13 | Expected points = 18
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